At the other end of the spectrum we see four teams. Milwaukee, Boston, Cleveland, and Houston have each been the anti-Spurs. Each of these teams has been within one standard deviation of 41 wins for 16 seasons. In other words, these franchises have each only been interesting four times. I think one would argue that contending for a title is more interesting than contending for the number one pick. And of these four, Milwaukee is the only one never to contend for the title in the past twenty years (although they did consistently contend prior to this time period). Consequently, I am giving the title of “least interesting team” to the Milwaukee Bucks.
The good news is we're on the upswing, right? Well, uh, maybe not.
When we look at the rest of the roster we see three above average players: Andrew Bogut, Williams, and Redd. None of these players managed to post a WP48 (Wins Produced per 48 minutes) of 0.150 or higher in either 05-6 or 06-07. As noted in the discussing the Pareto Principle, 20% of the Association players produced 80% of the wins. From a team’s perspective, this means that your best three players tend to produce the majority of your victories.
For the Bucks this tendency is bad news. Milwaukee’s best three players are not that great. Consequently, it’s hard to see this team becoming “interesting” in a good way in 07-08.
Charlie Villanueva: It's feeling great now. It's 100 percent ready. I have been playing in Milwaukee for two weeks already and it's feeling good and I'm ready to go.
"We're still talking and a good dialogue is going on," Bucks general manager Larry Harris said on Tuesday. "I would say progress is being made, and hopefully something will be done soon. "We're trying to financially get to a number where we both can be happy."
Read: a deal will probably get done soon. The Bucks have brought in some free agents to work out, including former Jazz and Illinois PG Dee Brown, but the bottom line is Bell is far more valuable than anyone they can find on the street right now.
Over at the JS Forum there's a thread detailing two conference calls today with Jim Paschke and Larry Krystkowiak. All the details seem fairly reasonable, save for the part about Andrew Bogut being up to 270 pounds and that being a good thing. Last year Bogut showed up supposedly around 255 but he lost a step and didn't carry the added weight particularly well. Over the course of the season he shed some of those pounds and looked a lot more comfortable, once again being able to face up and beat guys off the dribble, especially to his left. A guy like Bogut needs to build core strength more than pure upper body bulk, so if he is heavier hopefully it's because he's strengthened his base. But I'm not sure how likely that is, especially given he was recovering from his foot injury at the beginning of the summer. Still, some good tidbits in there.
Second round pick Ramon Sessions has signed a two-year deal with the Bucks. Sessions was selected 56th overall, which was the pick acquired from the Rockets in the 2005 Mike James/Reece Gaines trade. The Bucks' own second rounder (33rd overall) was shipped to the Spurs in order to get the Artist Formerly Known as Damir Markota. In case you're wondering, that pick was used to draft Arizona swingman Marcus Williams.
About half of this year's second rounders have signed thus far, so the timing isn't all that unusual. Though for what it's worth, David Noel (July 3, 2006), Damir Markota (July 25, 2006), and Ersan Ilyasova (August 23, 2005) all signed earlier in the summer. As TrueHoop noted this morning, virtually all 2nd rounders sign for the minimum, though no word yet on how much is guaranteed.
Sessions clearly has that natural knack for running a team, something he first displayed as a freshman. After injuries derailed his sophomore year, Sessions got back on track this season, showing major improvement as a scorer. His mark was all over this camp, and he does it with solid decision making, and a patient, probing way of making a defense commit to stopping him or stopping the pass. At this point Sessions would probably rather pull defenses toward him and use his excellent court vision to find teammates, but he is improving with the pull-up jumper and a creative array of floaters and other finishing moves if he makes his way into the lane.
I wouldn't read much into this in terms of the Charlie Bell situation, as the Bucks were going to sign Sessions regardless of whether Bell is re-signed. Potentially good news for the Bucks is that two of the European teams that had talked to Bell are likely no longer interested. Barcelona finally signed Alex Acker a week ago, while Greek side Olympiacos--the team Bell visited last weekend--reportedly signed Milos Teodosic after Bell left. The latter comes from a reliable poster over at RealGM, but I haven't seen it in the mainstream media (nor do I speak Greek unfortunately).
My guess is Sessions spends most of the season in the D-League unless one of the Bucks other PGs--Mo, Bell or Greer--goes down with an injury. So yes, I'm still assuming Charlie Bell will be a Buck next year. Longer-term his size and rep as a floor general could certainly give him a future in Milwaukee, since he could eventually provide a good change of pace from Mo Williams.
I'd have to guess his latest comments were perhaps the final nail in the coffin, and with Krystkowiak trying to build a more disciplined team Markota was probably viewed as a bad apple not worth wasting time on. Given he was friends with Bogut this might also be a bit of a wakeup call to the former #1 overall pick--no more coddling, Drew. In fairness Bogut doesn't have a rep for being much of a party animal, but his friendship with Markota was largely rumored to have been a reason the Bucks acquired Markota in the first place (and for a high '07 second rounder no less). I'll be curious to hear how much of his remaining two years' salary (about $1.5 million total, the minimum for a player of his tenure) was guaranteed.
But with Bell, the Bucks are gambling that the European threats are just a negotiating ploy. Remember, Bell has played in Russia, Spain and Italy, and though he hasn't bad-mouthed his experience, he has never seemed eager to go back. He once told a reporter, "Honestly, the food over there is good, but I prefer Pizza Hut and Olive Garden." ...
According to Greek papers, Charlie Bell is in Athens to visit with Olympiacos officials. The contract offer is reportedly a net-of-tax $5 million total over two years, so in pre-tax terms that's probably about $8 million or so. In other words, with Bell having stated a preference for staying in Milwaukee (and the NBA), the Bucks should have no problem retaining him for a fair amount. Keep in mind the last time Mark Bartelstein had a client make a trip to a competing city, Mo Williams wound up doing quite well for himself. No one seems to know what the Bucks are offering Bell, though in general the Bucks seem to be content to lowball Bell (or at least not roll over for him) and wait for someone else to force them to do something. Given they can match any offer sheet from another NBA team, the pressure hasn't really been on the Bucks to do anything. Clearly disappointed that he hasn't been able to fleece the Bucks again, Bartelstein has turned abroad to see if he can manufacture some leverage, but it still just doesn't seem possible that the Bucks would let Bell leave when a three-year, $10-12 million deal is probably enough to bring him back. Given the kinds of deals UFAs get you can understand why Bell would be hesitant to sign for a (gasp!) reasonable price, but it looks like the Bucks might be negotiating...well?
Damir Markota's Croatia took down Portugal 90-68 in their second game at the Eurobasket tournament in Spain. Markota appeared sober and came off the bench to score 13 points (3/4 fg, 2/2 3fg, 5/6 ft) along with a rebound, 2 assists, 2 steals, and a block in 23 minutes (box score).
Ersan Ilyasova's Turkish team also won their second Eurobasket game, beating the Czech Republic 80-72. Ersan started for the second straight game but struggled, scoring just one point and going 0-8 from the field with 6 rebounds in 22 minutes. I was hoping Ersan would have a breakout tournament, but so far in the EFES World Cup and Eurobasket he's really struggled to find his shot. Looks like stashing him away in Europe for at least a season could prove a wise move on the Bucks' part.
Markota by the way, isn’t letting being the last man on Milwaukee’s bench discourage him from having a little bit of fun…at least according to a quote he gave Croatian newspaper “Nacional” last week. It appears to be Milwaukee’s fault that he’s having so much fun off the court in fact…
"If I had a chance to play, I would not go to the night clubs. In some way it was the team’s fault. When you know that you’re not getting any playing time, you’re not motivated. One or two nights out won't hurt…There is no pressure, nobody is harsh on you if you lose the game, if you play bad. You’re still getting the money. There is no pressure from fans."
After a pause he said: "Hopefully I’ll play more next season. No more fooling around."
So to recap, Charlie Bell's agent says he will probably play better this year if the Bucks don't reward him with a long-term deal, and Damir Markota will stop partying so hard if the Bucks promise him some PT. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007/2008 Milwaukee Bucks! In fairness, Markota was supposedly having some fun with this, but his fondness for drinking seems to be common knowledge among Bucks insiders. Which is great to hear given that on draft night 2006 the Bucks gave the Spurs the better of their two second rounders in the '07 draft for the privilege of picking Markota 59th overall. Were the Spurs going to draft him regardless of the Bucks' offer? Or was someone else in the last couple picks of the second round really going to take him? Given everyone thought the '07 draft was going to be deep, the Bucks clearly had some very specific reasons for taking Markota when they did. While Markota had some excellent performances at the junior level, his effort level was always a question mark and he was hardly a can't miss prospect outside of that. Many have speculated that it was largely a move to appease Andrew Bogut, who had become buddies with Markota on the international circuit. That's very possible, but for the sake of the franchise you'd hope that setting up play-dates for Bogut isn't a top priority. In general it seems like that old George Bush joke also applies here: he's the kind of guy you'd want to go grab some beers with, but not necessarily a dude you want earning close to seven figures from your favorite team. I know, 15th man vs. commander-in-chief isn't the fairest of comparisons, but you get the idea.
From the limited burn he's gotten in the NBA as well as his summer league stint two months ago, it seems clear Markota is a long-shot to ever be a rotation player in the NBA. He's not a bad athlete but he lacks strength, has short arms and in general doesn't have any go-to NBA skills outside of a nice passing touch. Which, let's be honest, is of limited use given he's a big man who doesn't deserve touches when he's in the game. Mostly Damir just runs around setting half-assed screens and jacking up slow-mo 25-footers at the end of games. Watch the highlight reel above and you'll see what I mean--he's got the wind up of a little kid who needs all his strength to get the ball to the rim.
I know many hardcore fans would prefer we simply cut Markota and eat whatever guaranteed money is left on his deal (he's signed through 08/09, though I don't recall if any of that is NG'ed), but I'm skeptical that happens. Not that it doesn't make sense from a basketball standpoint, but my guess is the front office would rather not draw attention to their mistake. Unless Markota's off-court issues become such a major distraction that the team feels they have to send a message, I have to think they'd prefer to give him at least another year playing D-League ball in Tulsa and prove he can make something of himself. After all, as it stands most casual fans don't know a damn thing about him, making the mistake of trading for him a nice little secret between the franchise and its more hardcore fans (who actually waste time thinking about their 15th man...hey, guilty as charged). Cutting him now just makes that mistake obvious to everyone else. If it does happen I'll have a newfound respect for the front office, and if it doesn't...well, I'll understand.
Facing their first real test, Team USA blew out Brazil 113-76 on Sunday (box score). Michael Redd had another good game, chipping in 16 points (6/10 fg, 4/7 3fg) along with a rebound and a steal in 22 minutes. On Saturday the US torched Canada 113-63, with Redd scoring 19 points (6/14 fg, 5/10 3fg, 2-2 ft) along with 3 rebounds and an assist in 22 minutes (box score).
Croatia beat Turkey in the final of the EFES Pilsen World Cup 77-69. Damir Markota had 2 points and 6 rebounds in 14 minutes for Croatia, while Ersan Ilyasova had 2 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals in 18 minutes. Overall it was a disappointing tournament for Ilyasova, who found his minutes somewhat limited by the presence of both Hedo Turkoglu and Mehmet Okur.
Have you noticed how the silence has been almost deafening in contract negotiations between the Milwaukee Bucks and their top draft choice Yi Jianlian? It tells me two things: 1) Bucks owner Herb Kohl is now heavily involved in discussions, and 2) Yi will be under contract before the start of training camp Oct. 1. ... I guess it’s high time I become the arbiter in the stalemate between the Bucks and unsigned free-agent guard Charlie Bell and award the latter a three-year, $13 million contract.
While the Bucks seem intent to quietly seek resolution to the Yi situation, Guangdong's owners have been more than willing to negotiate through the press, so perhaps the silence from both sides is what makes Woelfel think there's actually something happening behind the scenes. There's a rumor that Guangdong will be holding a press conference this week where the Yi situation could be discussed, so stay tuned. As for Charlie Bell, it's looking increasingly unlikely that an MLE-type deal comes floating his way. When Michael Redd was a restricted free agent five years ago, he missed the start of training camp before the Bucks finally matched his offer sheet from the Mavs.
Michael Redd and Team USA play Canada today in Vegas (2 ET/1 CT, ESPN2 / replay 10 ET /9 CTpm, ESPN Classic).
Boeder Bucks has more details on the Celtics' reported interest in Ruben Patterson. Ruben had a career year last year amid the Bucks' injury chaos, which has made the Bucks' complete lack of interest a little interesting. The speculation is that "something" happened behind closed doors which might have shut the door on a possible return, though given Herb Kohl's usual philosophy of avoiding guys with rap sheets it might simply be a lack of interest in him for that reason. Of course the truth is that for as well as Ruben played, he's also a disruptive player on both sides of the ball, gambling defensively and needing post touches offensively. Those things work much better on an injury-depleted team that needs someone to step up, and less well on a young team that has offensive weapons but needs discipline defensively. Given the Celtics' depth issues, Ruben could be a valuable player off the bench.
China dropped to 0-3 in the EFES World Cup with a 100-78 loss to Latvia today. Yi Jianlian scored 24 points (9/17 fg and 6/7 ft) along with 5 rebounds in 26 minutes. Andris Biedrins was the star for Latvia, dropping 29 points and 18 rebounds, while Wang Zhizhi had 28 for China. China was again dominated on the glass, 47-19. Watch first half highlights here. Yi finished with a tournament high average of 23 ppg along with 8 rpg on 58.3% shooting from the field (28-48) and 81.3% from the line (13-16). I'll be posting a longer review of Yi's summer performances next week.
Croatia cruised into the tournament final with a 99-53 destruction of Poland in the first semifinal today. The Damir Markota Experience had its best game of the tournament, scoring 9 points (2/4 fg, 1/2 3fg, 4/4 ft) with 10 rebounds, two assists and a block in 26 minutes. Ersan Ilyasova's Turkish team takes on Serbia in the second semifinal.
Yi held his own against the Serbs, but the same can't be said for the rest of the Chinese team
China fell 96-76 to Serbia in their second game of the EFES World Cup 6, with Yi Jianlian once again the best player on the court for the Chinese. Yi talled 17 points and 9 rebounds on 8/12 shooting from the field and 1/2 from the line. The two losses mean the Chinese are eliminated from the tournament. UPDATE: my mistake, there's a consolation game for the last-place teams from each group.China plays Latvia tomorrow.
Croatia topped host Turkey 70-62 in the second game of the day. Ersan Ilyasova scored 8 points on 2/6 fg, 2/3 3fg, 2/2 ft to go along with 3 rebounds and an assist in 20 minutes. The Damir Markota Experience played only 3 minutes and was scoreless with two rebounds.
Yi torched the smaller Poles for 28 and 10, but had little help
This is a big week for Bucks-affiliated players and their national teams, with no less than five players with Bucks ties donning their countries' jerseys in the coming days. Of course most notably will be Michael Redd playing for Team USA, which begins its Tournament of Americas against Venezuela tonight.
Meanwhile in Turkey, Yi Jianlian (China), Ersan Ilyasova (Turkey), Damir Markota (Croatia) and Szymon Szewceck (Poland) will be participating in the EFES Pilsen World Cup 6 tournament featuring Turkey, China, Poland, Latvia, Croatia, and Serbia. It looks like each team will play two games and then the top four will advance to the semifinals, but I haven't been able to find a good English-language news story on the tournament, so bear with me.
In any case, Yi scored 28 along with 10 rebounds and two blocks in 35 minutes (video) in China's 83-66 loss to Poland this morning. Yi shot 11/19 from the floor and 6/7 from the line, scoring on an array of post moves, dunks, layups and a mid-range jumper. I missed the game but judging from the highlights the Poles really didn't have the size or athleticism to defend a guy like Yi. The loss will make it hard for China to advance to the tournament's elimination rounds, given they face a stiff test tomorrow against a Serbian team that will feature Darko Milicic among others. Long-forgotten 2003 Bucks second rounder Szymon Szewczyk is on the Polish roster, though I haven't heard whether or not he played. UPDATE: Szewcyck scored 9 points along with 3 rebounds and 1 assist.
Ilyasova's host Turkish team is playing right now against Andris Biedrins and Latvia and face Markota's Croatian team tomorrow. Croatia also plays Latvia on Friday. Unlike last year's World Championships when Ilyasova benefited from the absence of Hedo Turkoglu and Mehmet Okur, Turkey will field a full-strength side which could limit Ilysavoa's minutes somewhat.
The Bucks took down the Hornets 72-58 in Vegas. Rookie PG Ramon Sessions had 11 points (including a pair of dunks), 4 rebounds and 4 assists while Lynn Greer chipped in 15 (and no assists). The Damir Markota Experience contributed 12/8/4.
The Yi Jianlian watch continues into its 16th day, with no resolution likely for a while. The Chinese team has a number of games left this summer so Yi will continue to hope for a trade while the Bucks wait. His camp seems content to wait things out for now, which isn't surprising given training camp doesn't start until October 1st. Until then there's nothing to be gained in practical terms by signing, except for some goodwill from Bucks fans (unfortunately not a compelling reason in all likelihood). But I don't buy for a second that they want to hold him out for a year so he can be in the '08 draft. He'd get murdered in PR terms back home for not preparing for the '08 games, he AND his club team would lose a ton of money by not playing at all, and he'd also hurt his own development a great deal. It just doesn't make sense. Don't be surprised if we're stuck in a holding pattern until late September.
Charles Gardner reports Mo Williams is still undecided. Gardner reports Mo is leaning towards a four or five year deal with the Bucks, while Marc Stein said in Chad Ford's podcast yesterday that he was leaning towards Miami. The latest rumor is that the Bucks bumped up their offer slightly to between $40-45 million.
I had guessed that would be the offer a while ago, but figured they wouldn't try to play hardball once the Mo-to-Miami rumors picked up steam. I think the longer this stretches out the better it is for the Bucks' chances of bringing Mo back. If he really wanted to take less to go to Miami he could have already done that, as their offer isn't changing, and I really doubt the Bucks and Heat can work out a sign-and-trade. It would be something of a PR disaster to lose Mo even if he's not the perfect fit for the team. To keep their cap space the Bucks cannot publicly announce the terms of the deal, though they could say that a deal had been reached and then hope Mark Bartelstein doesn't leak the terms. In all likelihood it won't matter given the major free agents are now off the market.
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The Bucks' summer league team took down the Durant-less Sonics 92-85, as Lynn Greer went off for 19 and 8 assists and Noel Felix had 27. Felix is a 6'9", 225 lb PF who had a cup of coffee with the Sonics two years ago and is known more for his defensive abilities. He played with Maccabi Tel Aviv last year. And I'd be remiss if I didn't note that the Damir Markota Experience chipped in 14 points on a very tidy 5-6 shooting.
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Yi Jianlian struggled again in China's 80-52 loss to the Celtics. He was just 1-5 from the field with 7 points, 5 rebounds and 2 blocks. He's shown enough flashes of his offensive potential that I'm not all that concerned with his struggles from the field. The Chinese guards are horrendous so he's rarely getting the ball in good position, and when he does his shot's just not falling. The main thing I've been concerned with is his lack of tenacity on the glass, which has been true of the Chinese team as a whole. They really don't fight for rebounds and frequently get the ball torn out of their hands. I have been very pleased with Yi's ability to challenge shots above the rim--he's had a number of terrific blocks. Which is nice given we had no one who did that last year.
