Wednesday Bucks Notes

• Yi, Yao and China defeated the Melbourne Tigers for the second time in three days, winning 84-78 as Yi tallied 20 points and 9 rebounds on 7/12 fg and 6/6 ft in just 21 minutes. Yao led China with 25. Video highlights above.
• Gery Woelfel echoes previous reports about Charlie Bell's frustration in getting a new deal. Bell's agent Mark Bartelstein continues to hype foreign offers for his client, but hopefully the Bucks get something done, as losing Bell now would leave them short in the backcourt with precious few free agents still available--and not only that, they'd only have the veteran's minimum to offer. UPDATE: There are conflicting reports on whether or not Sarunas Jasikevicius is joining Greek team Olympiacos, but if he does it would drop Olympiacos out of the running for Bell. However, Tom Ziller notes Barcelona could step up and make a run at Bell given they were also hoping to sign Jasikevicius as a replacement for the Memphis-bound Juan Carlos Navarro.
• Chris Mannix doles out Team USA grades, giving Michael Redd an A-.

  The long search for a steady perimeter threat is over thanks to Redd, the purest shooter to don a USA uniform since Ray Allen. Redd admits even he is noticing his impact on the floor. In a preliminary round game against Venezuela, James drove to the basket against single coverage thanks to the help defender being afraid to leave Redd open. Redd could pick up his defense a little, but any deficiencies are probably more noticeable due to the fact that he is usually replacing the ball-hawking Bryant in games.

  Boeder Bucks has more.
  

Bucher, Dwyer on Yi

More talk about Yi's PT. Given I've posted articles from Chris Mannix, Tony Mejia, and Gary Howard about how much Yi is going to play (Was he guaranteed PT by Herb Kohl? Will he start? Does he view non-aggression as a strength or weakness of the Mainland's going-forward relationship with Taiwan?), I'm certainly obligated to also mention the article that Ric Bucher posted today over at ESPN. In it he talks about playing time being the key issue in getting Yi signed, and that Kohl promised Yi 20-25 mpg:

So what happens if Yi doesn't get the minutes promised? Kohl, the source said, has assured Yi he can come to him directly to discuss going elsewhere.

There's always the chance that minutes won't be an issue. Yi could make it a no-brainer to keep him on the floor. Perhaps the Bucks will flourish with a healthy Michael Redd dropping nearly 20 pounds and center Andrew Bogut entering his third season, which is about when most big men learn the NBA ropes.

Another interesting sidenote to this is that Bucher of course called out Larry Harris' pick on draft night for "going strictly on what his father has told him about this kid," which was a rather dramatic generalization given how many times Bucks scouts had seen Yi play. It's perhaps no surprise when Bucher notes that Harris did not return his phone calls about his latest column.

Like the always-intrepid Kelly Dwyer, I generally am not all that concerned with whatever the Bucks may or may not have promised Yi. Mostly it's just because the Bucks simply don't have the manpower at PF NOT to give him major minutes. If Yi doesn't get 20 mpg it won't be because the Bucks are loathe to give their new posterboy any love, and given Yi's reputation as a hard-worker I really don't see him raising a fuss. It's possible some members of his team might be annoyed, but Yi's recent quotes show he's at least saying all the right things about not having any guarantees, being prepared for the difficulties of adapting, etc. My only complaint with KD comes over Yi's age situation and what it means for his career:

Most stateside semi-observers like yours truly who have watched Yi over the last few years have come away with the same thought: "if he's 19, he'll be pretty darn good, eventually. If he's 23, uh oh." Imagine if Brandan Wright played the way he did last season with North Carolina at age 22 or 23. He wouldn't have even been drafted. That's what you have to remember when taking these things into account, and I think Wright's lanky frame and sometimes-there game is a good comparison.

For the record I strongly believe Yi is 22 (turning 23 in October) and I agree 100% that he'd be a better prospect if he was younger. Not even an admitted Yi apologist such as myself will quibble with that. But Brandan Wright to me is not a guy you'd compare to Yi in terms of questions about his age and development. Yes, they're both listed at 19. Wright's biggest question marks center around his ridiculously slender frame (200 at the pre-draft camp), a complete inability to shoot outside of 8 feet (though as his ridiculous fg% attests to, he's great from close range), and a general disdain for rebounding. Without a bigger body and some semblance of a shot, it's difficult to imagine the 19-year old Wright ever being much of a PF, so you're absolutely banking on the physical development and skill improvement that a 19-year old might acquire in 2-3 years. Because he has no chance as is. And for those who say Chris Bosh was also a skinny 19-year old as a rookie, remember that Bosh was a full 25 lbs heavier than Wright was at their respective pre-draft camps. Ironically, I wasted a lot more time reading scouting reports on Wright than Yi ahead of the draft, so

Yi's question marks are very different, and in my mind they're far less dependent on him gaining additional physical/skill maturity that might never come. Skill-wise he has a beautiful release that has allowed him to develop a consistent 15-20 foot jumper while shooting at an 80% clip from the foul line. No real comparison there between he and Wright. He's also got nice footwork down low, which combined with his touch give him a good arsenal of turnarounds and drop-step moves on the block. His hook could definitely use some work, but for a guy who many scouts view as more of a perimeter/face-up 4, Yi's impressed me a lot with his international play in the last month and change. It wasn't as evident in Vegas and most people haven't watched him since then, but he's been remarkably consistent and taken a much larger role with the national team, especially in the absence of Yao.

Physically Yi looks slender up top, but he carries a healthy 240 lbs or so on his 7'1" (according to Chad Ford) frame. He's got a strong base that translates into above-average leaping ability (37-38" vertical) and a knack for getting position down low. He still has a ways to go in becoming a stronger more aggressive rebounder. He could certainly gain some weight in his upper body, but he doesn't have anywhere near as much work ahead of him as Wright. There are absolutely question marks about Yi's game, most notably his rebounding, defensive intensity, and in general his ability to adapt to the NBA game and lifestyle. I think the latter is an automatic question for a player whose country has produced only one star player, but the former two are the ones that to me are the most legit questions about his game. Whether Yi can adapt and improve is far from certain, and if Yi were 19 he'd be arguably the most offensively gifted 7-footer of the last decade. Being 22 lowers his ceiling a bit, but it's still up there.

The Damir Markota Experience

You Can Find Anything on Youtube: The Complete Damir Markota Highlight Reel

I started referring to Bucks' second year PF/resident towel waver Damir Markota as the Damir Markota Experience (DMX) a little while ago, and if you're wondering why, look no further than some quotes DraftExpress found in a recent interview in the Croatian media:

Markota by the way, isn’t letting being the last man on Milwaukee’s bench discourage him from having a little bit of fun…at least according to a quote he gave Croatian newspaper “Nacional” last week. It appears to be Milwaukee’s fault that he’s having so much fun off the court in fact…

"If I had a chance to play, I would not go to the night clubs. In some way it was the team’s fault. When you know that you’re not getting any playing time, you’re not motivated. One or two nights out won't hurt…There is no pressure, nobody is harsh on you if you lose the game, if you play bad. You’re still getting the money. There is no pressure from fans."

After a pause he said: "Hopefully I’ll play more next season. No more fooling around."

So to recap, Charlie Bell's agent says he will probably play better this year if the Bucks don't reward him with a long-term deal, and Damir Markota will stop partying so hard if the Bucks promise him some PT. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007/2008 Milwaukee Bucks! In fairness, Markota was supposedly having some fun with this, but his fondness for drinking seems to be common knowledge among Bucks insiders. Which is great to hear given that on draft night 2006 the Bucks gave the Spurs the better of their two second rounders in the '07 draft for the privilege of picking Markota 59th overall. Were the Spurs going to draft him regardless of the Bucks' offer? Or was someone else in the last couple picks of the second round really going to take him? Given everyone thought the '07 draft was going to be deep, the Bucks clearly had some very specific reasons for taking Markota when they did. While Markota had some excellent performances at the junior level, his effort level was always a question mark and he was hardly a can't miss prospect outside of that. Many have speculated that it was largely a move to appease Andrew Bogut, who had become buddies with Markota on the international circuit. That's very possible, but for the sake of the franchise you'd hope that setting up play-dates for Bogut isn't a top priority. In general it seems like that old George Bush joke also applies here: he's the kind of guy you'd want to go grab some beers with, but not necessarily a dude you want earning close to seven figures from your favorite team. I know, 15th man vs. commander-in-chief isn't the fairest of comparisons, but you get the idea.

From the limited burn he's gotten in the NBA as well as his summer league stint two months ago, it seems clear Markota is a long-shot to ever be a rotation player in the NBA. He's not a bad athlete but he lacks strength, has short arms and in general doesn't have any go-to NBA skills outside of a nice passing touch. Which, let's be honest, is of limited use given he's a big man who doesn't deserve touches when he's in the game. Mostly Damir just runs around setting half-assed screens and jacking up slow-mo 25-footers at the end of games. Watch the highlight reel above and you'll see what I mean--he's got the wind up of a little kid who needs all his strength to get the ball to the rim.

I know many hardcore fans would prefer we simply cut Markota and eat whatever guaranteed money is left on his deal (he's signed through 08/09, though I don't recall if any of that is NG'ed), but I'm skeptical that happens. Not that it doesn't make sense from a basketball standpoint, but my guess is the front office would rather not draw attention to their mistake. Unless Markota's off-court issues become such a major distraction that the team feels they have to send a message, I have to think they'd prefer to give him at least another year playing D-League ball in Tulsa and prove he can make something of himself. After all, as it stands most casual fans don't know a damn thing about him, making the mistake of trading for him a nice little secret between the franchise and its more hardcore fans (who actually waste time thinking about their 15th man...hey, guilty as charged). Cutting him now just makes that mistake obvious to everyone else. If it does happen I'll have a newfound respect for the front office, and if it doesn't...well, I'll understand.

Yi and China vs. Melbourne Tigers

Yi Jianlian scored 19 points along with 12 rebounds and two blocks in 25 minutes in the Chinese National Team's 69-56 win over the Melbourne Tigers, an Aussie NBL team that is doing a tour of China at the moment. This was Yao Ming's first game for China this summer, so it was a chance to see how Yi would play now that China's only superstar was back in the fold. Yao had 12 points but is still working his way back into shape, so Yi largely deferred to Yao while they were on the court together. Still, Yi managed to put on a good show for his hometown fans, including a handful of dunks and nice moves in the post. Former NBA players Chris Anstey and Martin Muursepp play for Melbourne, so there were at least two vaguely competent big men that the Chinese had to cope with. Check out Yi's video highlights above. The video from this site sometimes loads slowly, so you might want to start it, pause it immediately, and then let it load fully.

UPDATE: Australia's The Age and Charles Gardner at the JS also have stories on this game. I had originally reported Yi went for 20/10 but the latest is 19/12...either way you get the drift.

Redd Gets Gold

The USA concluded their impressive Tournament of the Americas performance with a 118-81 thumping of Argentina, clinching gold ahead of the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. While the US was never troubled in Vegas, we should also remember that top competitors like Argentina and Brazil were missing key players while European powers like Spain, Lithuania, Serbia and Greece will also be in Beijing. And while the US will likely add Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh to next summer's team, their impact on the already star-studded lineup will likely have less effect than the additions of players like Manu Ginobili to Argentina or Anderson Varejao to Brazil. Still, it's difficult to find much fault with the USA's performance in Vegas.

As for Michael Redd, he broke out of his mini-slump against Puerto Rico on Saturday, helping the US beat their semifinal Puerto Rico 135-91 with 23 points on 8/10 fg including a sizzling 7/8 from three (box score). He wasn't a factor in the gold medal game, scoring 5 points on 2/4 fg and 1/3 from deep (box score).

It was undoubtedly a great experience for Redd, who surprised some by finishing as the USA's fourth leading scorer with 14.4 ppg on 53% shooting from the field and 45% from deep (USA stats). Even with Wade and Bosh likely to be added to the roster next summer, Redd's value as a three point specialist should make him a safe bet for the Beijing roster, especially given that he outperformed Mike Miller, the team's other designated shooter. Looking 10-15 pounds slimmer, Redd looked quicker than last season, when he played the majority of his minutes at small forward. But let's give Redd some credit--even after getting his max contract, he's continued to improve his game. Sure, his rebounding has fallen off, and there's lots of room for him to become a better passer, but his scoring has increased every season in the league, as he's gone from an outside gunner to a legit all-around scorer. This year he won't need to score more to improve, as keeping the Bucks' other offensive weapons involved should be a more important goal. Charles Gardner writes that Mike Krzyzewski was even impressed with his defense, something all Bucks fans would love to hear coming from the other Coach K this season.

But Redd said he is anxious to return to the Bucks for training camp in less than a month. Some of the experience he has gained with Team USA could translate during the regular season.

"I think he really surprised a lot of people," Bucks general manager Larry Harris said of Redd's performance with the U.S. squad. "But we see him every day. I think the next step we want him to take is making the players around him better.

"In the (U.S.) games I saw, I don't know if he took any bad shots. That shows he is adjusting and understanding how to make others better. And he's really trying to apply himself defensively. It's a great experience; it's invaluable."

Saturday Bucks Notes

• Charles Gardner has a nice article about Mike Redd and Team USA. The US plays Puerto Rico tonight at 7/6 central in the semifinals.
• Tony Mejia at CBS Sportsline with his obligatory Yi article.
• TrueHoop has a great story about a charity game set up by Yao and Steve Nash. Yao, Yi and the Chinese national team will take on a team of NBA stars September 14 in Beijing.
• The lighter side of the Yi Jianlian situation.
  

Bell Considering Euro Offers?

Charles Gardner reports that restricted free agent Charlie Bell is now considering European offers given the stalemate he's reached with the Bucks. Gery Woelfel reported something similar earlier this week on WSSP. Bell's agent Mark Bartelstein has made an absolute fortune off the Bucks, getting Mo Williams, Bobby Simmons, Jake Voskuhl and Awvee Storey favorable deals in recent years, but he's clearly hit a roadblock with Bell.

Bartelstein would not reveal the European clubs but said Bell had received "a couple terrific opportunities with very high-level teams."

"It's the Bucks' prerogative. They've got to do business, and Charlie's got to do what is best for Charlie," Bartelstein said. "The reality of it is, if the Bucks wanted him, they have the ability to sign him."

I've yet to hear any rumors about what the Bucks' current offer is, though they were required to make him a one-year tender offer worth just under $1 million to retain his early Bird rights. I'd guess they've offered something in the range of three years, $8-10 million, which is far below the deals Jason Kapono and Matt Carroll got. While Bell's a valuable utilityman who can defend both backcourt positions, he's also not a starter nor is he going to get much better. So why overpay Bell just because other teams overpaid Jason Kapono? Clearly other teams believe the Bucks' intentions to match any offer sheet he might receive, so upping the ante now would likely only be a case of the Bucks bidding against themselves. And given that's basically how Dan Gadzuric got his six year, $36 million deal, I'd like to applaud Larry Harris for learning from his mistakes. Here's my favorite line from Bartelstein:

"He's going to play his heart out, whoever he plays for," Bartelstein said. "If anything, it (a one-year deal) might enhance his performance because he would have something to prove."

There's something beautiful about an agent admitting that his client will play better if he doesn't have a big contract already. So note to Larry Harris: Charlie Bell will not be as good if you reward him with a long-term deal. Thanks, Charlie. Of course, the real beauty of this quote is that Bell was already coming off a contract year, but apparently his performance this contract year will be better than the last contract year. The bottom line is that while Bell could take the one-year deal and be a free agent next summer, it would be a huge risk. So Bartelstein is getting antsy. As a 28-year old who's never had a big payday AND who is coming off a career year (13.5 ppg in 35 mpg), Bell clearly would prefer to lock up a Matt Carroll-like deal (a vaguely reasonable $4.5 million per season, but for an incomprehensibly long six years) and be done with it. But Bell is never going to get those kinds of minutes this year unless the Bucks are again ravaged by injuries, so his numbers are bound to take a hit. That might not make him less valuable a year from now, but that's the reality of free agency.

The inclusion of the Arenas rule in the 2005 CBA fundamentally changed the nature of the negotiating process for top-name restricted free agents, but this year even sub-MLE type guys like Bell are having an awfully hard time getting deals done. Steve Aschburner at SI had a really good piece a couple weeks back about this, and since that time the big RFAs continue to sit and wait.

I'm not exactly clear what kind of money Bell could get overseas, but I still have a hard time seeing him go that route; it might take a little while longer, but Bell still seems a very good bet to be a Buck in 07/08. And if you're thinking it's getting a little late, remember that Michael Redd's offer sheet from the Mavs in 2002 didn't come until October 1, and the Bucks didn't actually match it until October 14. Pretty interesting to read about that situation now and think how the franchise might be different had Redd left. If Redd had left, Ray Allen probably doesn't get traded to Seattle...and who knows what else. In the meantime, who would have thought two months ago that Yi Jianlian would be easier to sign than Charlie Bell?

Friday Bucks Notes

• Charles Gardner looks at when Yi will actually get to Milwaukee.

  "Yi is anxious to get to Milwaukee and start training," Harris said. "Those are points we're continuing to iron out. Our intent is to have him here when camp opens if not sooner."

  The Bucks open training camp on Oct. 2 at the Cousins Center in St. Francis, but Yi could be miles away on that day. The Chinese national team is competing in a three-day tournament in Kunshan from Sept. 30-Oct. 2, a tourney dubbed the CBA-Euroleague Challenge. Other teams competing are the Sydney Kings of Australia, Benetton Treviso and CSKA Moscow.

  While Yi should be in good physical condition given he's been playing off and on for the CNT since the draft, he's never even been to Milwaukee before, so the off-court adjustment will add a degree of difficulty to his first training camp.

• Gardner also writes that Charlie Villanueva's recovery from surgery on his labrum (read: shoulder) is going well. This isn't anything new, as it's been expected he would be ready for training camp, but it's always nice to hear, isn't it?
  

  Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva says he's about 95% in his recovery from right shoulder surgery and may be cleared for full-contact drills next week.

  Villanueva will head to New York for a Sept. 6 appointment with orthopedic surgeon David Altchek, who performed the procedure to repair a torn labrum. The former Connecticut star hopes to get the go-ahead for contact when he visits Altchek, who is the New York Mets team doctor.

  "My progress is going great," Villanueva said. "There's a little bit of pain, but nothing major, nothing I can't play through."

  Villanueva has been able to shoot, run, lift weights and even is dunking.

  "I have no problem shooting with my right hand; I've been shooting NBA threes, no problem," Villanueva said. "It really, really, really feels good.

  "The reason I say it's 95% is because I don't know when I play with contact how it's going to feel."

  Just as interestingly, he weighs in a little on the Yi signing. He sounded upbeat about the drafting of Yi in July, so I wouldn't expect him to say anything controversial now. One thing I've noticed about Charlie is that he's generally a positive guy who is very good at saying what people want to hear, but you know that he realizes the Bucks may have just drafted his replacement, which has to screw with his head a little given he was also deemed the odd man out in Toronto.

  "I think Coach K (Larry Krystkowiak) is not going to give anything to nobody," Villanueva said. "Everything is going to be earned. The guys that deserve to play are the guys who should play.

  "I think Yi is going to be fine. He's a rookie; he's going to have his mistakes here and there. He's a good player. He knows how to bounce back from that.

Team USA Redux

USA v. Uruguay: LBJ

While I was busy brushing up on my Mandarin, some guy named Redd helped the USA remain perfect at the FIBA Tournament of the Americas. Well, "helped" might be a little generous, given Redd had his two quietest games of the tournament. On Wednesday the USA downed Uruguay 118-78. Redd scored 9 points (3-6 fg, 2-4 3fg, 1-1 ft) along with a rebound, 2 assists and 2 steals (box score). LeBron James had 26 points (on 11/11 from the field) in just 14 minutes, which is downright silly.


USA v. Argentina Highlights

Then last night the USA faced their biggest test of the tournament so far, squeezing by Argentina 91-76. Redd played just 13 minutes, scoring 3 points (1/4 fg, 1/3 3 fg) with a rebound and a steal (box score), but Kobe Bryant scored 27 to pace the States. Boeder Bucks has been all over Team USA's performances, so head over there for more.

Yi's Playing Time

Channel 12 on the Yi Signing

Chris Mannix at CNNSI tackles the Yi signing. He has a couple Redd quotes but mainly argues the Bucks shouldn't be guaranteeing Yi a specific amount of PT:

"I'm glad we got it knocked out," said Redd. "I didn't want it to be a distraction during training camp and I'm glad he signed on to be part of our team."

"Training camp is war and he is going to have to fight for his minutes," said Redd. "All I know is that he is going to have to come in and battle. If he comes in with the mindset to work hard, he will be fine."

Like any rookie, Yi should have to earn his playing time. If Milwaukee coach Larry Krystowiak is under orders to play Yi, say, 20 minutes per game it will impact his overall game plan. Suppose a game is close in the third quarter and Krystowiak has to sub out a Bogut and insert an inexperienced Yi into a game just so he meets his predetermined minutes total. What if as a result, the game slips away? Is getting Yi on the roster worth sacrificing games? This isn't CYO basketball where all the kids are supposed to play. This is a professional league with high stakes.

While I agree Yi shouldn't be promised anything, Mannix's hypothetical is rather severe and overlooks the fact that the Bucks won't have many other options outside of Yi. First off, even if Harris/Kohl asked LK to give Yi 20 mpg, are they really going to be enforcing this on a game-to-game basis? Of course not. Mannix also seems to assume that the Bucks' assurances of playing time mean they'll force Yi into the rotation when he doesn't necessarily deserve to be there. But given the Bucks' lack of depth at PF outside of Yi and Charlie Villanueva, they really have no choice but to give Yi significant playing time. Harris and company clearly approached free agency with the assumption Yi would contribute, as they let Brian Skinner, Ersan Ilyasova and Ruben Patterson walk. While Villanueva's injury was a large part of it, that trio combined for 61% of the Bucks PF minutes according to 82games. I'm not terribly worried about Yi beating out Jake Voskuhl and Damir Markota for PF minutes. Over at the JS Garry Howard argues Yi should start:

Today, pencil in Yi, mainly because I believe the Bucks want desperately to have a confident first-round pick and general manager Larry Harris indicated in this morning's conference call from Hong Kong that the team has made assurances to Yi and his representatives that he will be a big part of their season.

Having said that, I still believe Villaneuva is the better player and will not let a depth chart keep him from reclaiming his place in the starting lineup for the 2007-'08 Bucks. But he has to prove that his shoulder is fine and that his stated desire to be a major contributor to this team's success has not waned.

Believe me, Yi will get his minutes.

The fact that Yi WILL get minutes regardless of whether he starts is precisely what makes starting him not terribly important. The Bucks don't need to start Yi for him to be a contributor, and I think it's nonsense to say Yi needs the confidence boost of starting. Couldn't Charlie Villanueva also use that confidence boost as well? It seems unlikely to me that Yi beats out Villanueva in camp simply because of the experience gap between the two, and giving Yi the starting job anyway won't win him any fans among his new teammates. Larry Krystkowiak has stated his desire to implement a disciplined system where all players are held accountable, so gift-wrapping the starting PF spot to Yi seems to only undermine the young coach's authority. Yi faces a steep learning curve guarding NBA PFs, so it also makes sense to have him playing against second units early on as he adapts to the way the game is played/officiated. Villanueva might be a defensive liability, but forcing Yi to line up against Howard, Garnett, and J. O'Neal might do both Yi and the Bucks more harm than good in the short-term.

Clearly the writing is on the wall that the Bucks want Yi to be their PF for the future. So what about Villanueva? Even in Toronto he played most of his minutes at PF rather than SF, and his lack of perimeter foot speed makes him even worse defensively at the 3 than the 4. So while the occasional Bogut/Yi/Villanueva lineup might make it on the court, it's more of an NBA Live lineup than something that will work in the long term. With the end of his rookie contract on the horizon (his last team option will be in 08/09), Villanueva will be facing plenty of pressure to bounce back from an injury-riddled second season, and I think the Bucks have plenty of incentives to give him the opportunity to prove his worth. Ideally Villanueva has a strong season and puts up 15/8 while Yi becomes a valuable third wheel in the 4/5 rotation. Then the Bucks can explore their trade options for Villanueva and perhaps acquire a more defensive-minded big man to complement Bogut and Yi.